OK
http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/
Websites
Runtime: 2.1s
On April 04, 2025, 05:38 PM UTC, http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/ was accessible when tested on AS45102 in Hong Kong.
Failures
HTTP Experiment
null
DNS Experiment
null
Control
null
DNS Queries
Resolver:
74.63.27.244
Query:
IN A francis-lui.blogspot.com
Engine:
system
Name
Class
TTL
Type
DATA
@
IN
A
142.250.198.65
TCP Connections
Connection to 142.250.198.65:80 succeeded.
HTTP Requests
URL
GET http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/
Response Headers
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用經濟學做眼睛
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>4/04/2025</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2025/04/blog-post.html'>長和賣港口 定量影響有多大？(雷鼎鳴)</a>
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<p> </p><p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">長和</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;"><a href="https://invest.hket.com/data/HKG00001/?mtc=70057"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: #cc0022; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">（</span><span style="color: #cc0022; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">00001<span lang="ZH-TW">）</span></span></a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"> <span lang="ZH-TW">賣港口事件鬧得沸沸揚揚，我一直不願過早談論此事，原因是判斷當中的利害得失必須要大量的數據支持，不掌握數據不宜跟風亂說。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">我花了好些時間去了解此事後，認為長和在此事上（局外人其實難以知道這是誰的建議，誰作決定），有可能闖了禍，但此禍的影響其實有限，而且可以通過反制而控制損失。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">這裏有兩個主要問題：第一，對中國貿易，尤其是出口商品的競爭力有多大影響？定量分析顯示，影響微乎其微；第二，中國的造船量全球佔比去年是</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">55.7%<span lang="ZH-TW">，手上定单全球佔比</span>63.1%<span lang="ZH-TW">，是真正的超級霸主。反觀美國，其造船量只佔全球</span>0.1%<span lang="ZH-TW">，中國勝她</span>500<span lang="ZH-TW">倍不止，這怎麼不引致美國忌憚？</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國貿易代表放的風，是要對中國造的船在進入美國港口時大幅收費，可能每艘船額外多收</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">150<span lang="ZH-TW">萬美元。長和在美國沒有經營港口，但在巴拿馬的</span>5<span lang="ZH-TW">個港口中有兩個，而其他</span>3<span lang="ZH-TW">個的經營權是在美國、台灣與新加坡手上。我們大可假設，不論是與美資貝萊德合資擬購買長和港口的意大利地中海航運公司，或是上述在巴拿馬營運港口的美國、台灣、新加坡的公司，都可能在美國壓力下全部收取額外的每船</span>150<span lang="ZH-TW">萬美元；若如此，誰還敢再買中國造的船？每次</span>150<span lang="ZH-TW">萬美元不是小數，要知道，中國去年出口</span>5,804<span lang="ZH-TW">艘船，總值</span>434<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元，每船平均價格也只約</span>750<span lang="ZH-TW">萬美元，交費</span>5<span lang="ZH-TW">次幾乎便等於一艘船的價格。當然，大船遠不止</span>750<span lang="ZH-TW">萬美元，但我們仍可從此知道對中國造船業的壓力。這要如何反制才可保護中國的造船業？</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">稍推高華外貿成本 無礙競爭力</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">關於第一個問題，我們要算一些帳。長和是世界最大的港口營運商，</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2023<span lang="ZH-TW">年長和的港口共處理過</span>8,210<span lang="ZH-TW">萬個</span>20<span lang="ZH-TW">呎標準貨櫃（</span>TEU<span lang="ZH-TW">），佔全球的</span>9.78%<span lang="ZH-TW">。這次打算賣掉的並不止是巴拿馬兩個港口，而是全球各地共</span>43<span lang="ZH-TW">個港口。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">貝萊德及地中海航運公司購得其餘的港口後，會否一樣收取每船</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">150<span lang="ZH-TW">萬美元？並非完全不可能，但就算如此，中國的船可停在其他碼頭上，競爭壓力會制約美國的長臂管轄，所以我們只用集中分析長和一旦賣港後，美國有可能取得壟斷能力的巴拿馬港口。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">巴拿馬</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2022<span lang="ZH-TW">年共有</span>852<span lang="ZH-TW">萬個</span>TEU<span lang="ZH-TW">通過運河，其中中國佔</span>21%<span lang="ZH-TW">，即約</span>179<span lang="ZH-TW">萬個</span>TEU<span lang="ZH-TW">。先假設這些遠洋來</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;">的</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">貨櫃都是載在標準的大船上，每船可載</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2<span lang="ZH-TW">萬個以上的貨櫃，即這</span>179<span lang="ZH-TW">萬個</span>TEU<span lang="ZH-TW">共需近</span>90<span lang="ZH-TW">艘大船。每船額外費用</span>150<span lang="ZH-TW">萬美元，意味着每年共要多付約</span>1.35<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">1.35<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元是很小的數目。中國去年商品進出口貿易額共</span>6.1<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元，因巴拿馬運河「失守」所帶來的</span>1.35<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元損失，只是貿易總額的</span>0.002%<span lang="ZH-TW">，對價格或競爭力幾乎毫無影響。會否對路過巴拿馬的中國貨影響大得多？每年經過運河的</span>179<span lang="ZH-TW">萬個</span>TEU<span lang="ZH-TW">的中國貨，佔進出過中國（及香港）港口每年</span>2.86<span lang="ZH-TW">億個</span>TEU<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>0.63%<span lang="ZH-TW">。換言之，我們可估計路過巴拿馬運河的中國貨價值或约是</span>6.1<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億的</span>0.63%<span lang="ZH-TW">，即</span>384<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元。若這估計不離譜，那麼路過巴拿馬的貨物（中國出口或入口的貨物）便要因額外費用而成本上升</span>0.35%<span lang="ZH-TW">，依然構成不了重大影響。也許我們假設過於樂觀，上述的推算低估了</span>10<span lang="ZH-TW">倍（這不大可能），即使如此，每艘船的額外收費，也只是使中國總體貿易成本推高了</span>0.02%<span lang="ZH-TW">，對路過運河的貨物價格推高</span>3.5%<span lang="ZH-TW">，根本破壞不了中國的競爭力。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">中國製造業港口業 已成超級大國</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">至於第二個問題，即中國的造船業如何反制，我們首先要認識中國的製造業與港口業都已經是世界的唯一超級大國。中國製造業佔全球製造業的</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">35%<span lang="ZH-TW">，比排名第</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">到第</span>10<span lang="ZH-TW">加起來還要稍多。中國加上香港港口的貨櫃吞吐量，</span>2022<span lang="ZH-TW">年共佔全球的</span>34%<span lang="ZH-TW">，比排名第</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">到第</span>12<span lang="ZH-TW">加起來更高。有此輾壓性的實力，中國完全有能力反制美國意圖摧毁中國造船業的圖謀。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美政客折騰 京完全有能力反制</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">反制的方法多得很，舉個例子，我在香港科大的舊同事數學家汪揚教授，便曾建議用一種對等的收費方法，使到採用中國船的成本不會被扭曲。任何到過美國或巴拿馬運河而不用交</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">150<span lang="ZH-TW">萬美元的船來到中國便要多繳</span>150<span lang="ZH-TW">萬美元或以上。此類方案可微調，增加或減少其狠辣程度及覆盖面，目的在於使到非中國製造的船失去任何因美國歧視性政策而造成的優勢。經一段時間後，美國會發現這政策打擊不了中國的造船業，要及早放棄。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國政客犯的毛病，是不知道在多種領域上，美國已淪為二等國家，弱國挑衅實力比她強大得多的對手，不是自討苦吃嗎？運費增加，不但推高美國的通脹（雖推高不了多少），也為自己的出口增加成本，又無法打殘中國的造船業，折騰一番，所為何求？</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">香港不少評論人因見到長和（也許）無意的配合美國的陰招而擔心不已。他們可能也低估了中國的能量。中國經濟在多個領域內已變成超大規模，例如港口吞吐量是美國的</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">4.6<span lang="ZH-TW">倍，反制美國綽綽有餘。最好的情境當然是美國終認清自己，懾於中國的實力而不做出損人害己的事情。</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;">（</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">經濟</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;">日报 </span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;">2025-04-4<span lang="ZH-CN">）</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>3/28/2025</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2025/03/3.html'>3大經濟戰綫齊開打 幫不了美國 （雷鼎鳴）</a>
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<p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">國際貿易環境波譎雲詭，特朗普（</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">Donald Trump<span lang="ZH-TW">）放言要取得格陵蘭，把加拿大變成美國第</span>51<span lang="ZH-TW">個州，又說「收回」巴拿馬運河，這些都不易實現，卻反映美國十分希冀控制北極及貫通太平洋及大西洋咽喉航道。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">關稅航道港口戰 各方皆受害</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">長和</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><a href="https://invest.hket.com/data/HKG00001/?mtc=70057"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: #cc0022; text-decoration-line: none;">（</span><span style="color: #cc0022; text-decoration-line: none;">00001<span lang="ZH-TW">）</span></span></a></span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"> <span lang="ZH-TW">打算把</span>43<span lang="ZH-TW">個港口賣給美資全球最大的資金管理公司貝萊德，引起軒然大波，至今爭論仍甚囂塵上，這显示美國對爭奪港口管理的話語權甚感興趣。但航道戰或港口戰與關稅戰幾乎是同一回事，只是貿易戰的不同手段而已。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">關稅戰雖不會有贏家，交戰各方都會蒙受其害，但其實它已是貿易戰各手段選項中較易操作及較少損失的方法。政府抽了關稅，等於從本國消費者手中抽了針對某些進口產品的銷售稅，人民多付了稅，損失了，但政府卻多了收入，雖然不難證明人民的損失數值大於政府收益，但部分損失被收益填補，有時也可撑下去。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">不過，美國總統特朗普與前總統拜登（</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">Joe Biden<span lang="ZH-TW">）為了減少美國貿赤及要遏制中國崛起的關稅戰卻顯然失敗，看看數字便知。從關稅戰之前的</span>2017<span lang="ZH-TW">年至</span>2024<span lang="ZH-TW">年，美國對中國的貿赤，雖然共減少了</span>21.3%<span lang="ZH-TW">，但美國對全球的貿赤卻上升了</span>77.7%<span lang="ZH-TW">。反觀中國，同一時期，對世界的貿易盈餘卻增加了</span>119.8%<span lang="ZH-TW">，貨品進出口總額也上升了</span>50.1%<span lang="ZH-TW">。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">美國如此失威，總要在別的地方找回面子。我不說找回「利益」，因為美國的新做法依然可能在損害自己利益。控制航道及控制港口，都可增加對手的貿易成本，起到與關稅近似的效果。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">不過，航道戰或港口戰與關稅也不是沒有區別。封鎖航道會迫使船隻繞道而行，運輸成本大增或甚至貨物無法通行。港口收費劇增可起到近似效果，但要看港口所在地的主權國家是否容許管理公司胡來，亦要看看是否存在競爭，你加了價，船都跑到別的碼頭。我們可視封鎖航道或收港口費是有關方面長臂管轄的手段，我雖沒法在別國加你關稅，但一樣可靠加港口費或逼你走遠路而增加你的貿易成本。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">收港口費控制航道 物價勢更貴</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">但這些策略亦會對己帶來不妙後果。運輸成本增加了，不但入口不利，同時也會打擊出口。美國若用此等方法，等於增加了入口稅及出口稅，搬起石頭打自己的腳，只禁別的國家的船或只對別國的船收取昂貴港口費？幫助也不大，今天的貿易是基於生產供應鏈的貿易，一個產品的生產往往涉及多個國家，增加了運輸成本後，最會發生的，便是甚麼都貴了，人人都損失。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">不同的國家對關稅戰、航道戰、港口戰會有不同的態度。中國是全球自由貿易的最大得益者，貿易使中國解放了生產力，促進了改革，所以支持自由貿易，也明白「人類命運共同體」值得推動。中國在世界多個港口有管理權，最符合中國利益的便是降低貿易成本。關稅也不想搞，</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">RCEP<span lang="ZH-TW">等項目也是以撤除關稅為目標，怎會無端控制港口或航道阻礙貿易？</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">美常誤用關稅遏對手 屢試屢敗</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">但美國不同，她的政客十分愚蠢，歷史上常錯誤地以為可利用關稅去保護自己，打擊假想敵。雖屢試屢敗，毫無成績，但他們總還是要試的。所以若港口為他們掌管，航道為他們控制，的確可能出事，累及各國。例如若巴拿馬為其所制，加勒比海的國家便應擔心從中國輸入的貨品是否會更貴。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">長和掌管</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">43<span lang="ZH-TW">個港口時，中國不用擔心，也不用干預，長和中立，最符自己利益和世界利益，若港口落在美國手中，情況大不相同。美國關稅戰失敗了，會否改為利用碼頭收費來破壞貿易？誰也不能說美國無此意圖。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">上文說美國的政客有時會十分愚蠢，常做自殘之事。歷史上的案例甚多，</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">1930<span lang="ZH-TW">年兩名共和黨議員推動的「斯姆特</span>--<span lang="ZH-TW">霍利關稅法案」（</span>Smoot-Hawley
Tariff Act<span lang="ZH-TW">）便是教科書級數的反面教材。上世紀</span>20<span lang="ZH-TW">年代美國因為電氣化及出現了汽車、貨車、拖拉機等工具，生產力大幅上揚，產品數量大增，不易找市場售賣，這兩位議員竟然祭出保護主義大旗，對</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">萬多個產品徵收美國史上第二高的關稅。當時有</span>1,028<span lang="ZH-TW">位經濟學家，其中部分頗負盛名，聯署反對這法案，福特汽車的福特更把此法案稱為「經濟上的愚蠢」，但參眾兩院還是通過了法案，胡佛（</span>Herbert
Hoover<span lang="ZH-TW">）總統也簽了名。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">它的後果是甚麼？多個國家實施了報復性關稅，有些國家的人民抗議了，不加關稅但也少買美國貨。在美國有徵關稅的貨品上，平均稅率高達</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">59.1%<span lang="ZH-TW">，美國的進出口貿易額皆跌。據近年的一份研究，在有對美國報復的國家，美國的出口少了</span>28%<span lang="ZH-TW">至</span>32%<span lang="ZH-TW">，光只是抗議一下的國家，美國出口也少了</span>15%<span lang="ZH-TW">至</span>23%<span lang="ZH-TW">。要知道，當年正值大蕭條，經濟史學家一般認為這法案把大蕭條的殺傷力大大的加深了</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">不明白貿易的好處，及不信別國有力還擊，正是</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">30<span lang="ZH-TW">年代及今天美國政客的通病。美國有此前科，中國不能不寸海必爭。 </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"> </span></p>
<p><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">（<span style="letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">經濟日报 </span></span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: 107%;">2025-3-28<span lang="ZH-TW">）</span></span> </p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>3/21/2025</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2025/03/blog-post_21.html'>民企成創科主力 激發活力貢獻巨 （雷鼎鳴）</a>
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<p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">2<span lang="ZH-TW">月中，中共總書記習近平主持了一個最高規格的民營企業座談會，與會者千挑萬選，很有代表性。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">除了華為的任正非、小米的雷軍、比亞迪的王傳福等，還有復出的阿里巴巴馬雲、宇樹科技</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">90<span lang="ZH-TW">後的王興興、近日火紅的</span>DeepSeek 80<span lang="ZH-TW">後梁文鋒等，頗能顯示出中央政府對新質生產力、高端製造業與科技的重視。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">座談會後一個多月以來，市場反應十分正面，股市上升不少，恒指亦突破了去年</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">10<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>4<span lang="ZH-TW">日</span>22736<span lang="ZH-TW">點的高位。中國雖要應付貿易戰及美國總統特朗普（</span>Donald Trump<span lang="ZH-TW">）的無常，但氣度從容，智珠在握。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">民企座談會 聚焦高端製造業</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">座談會的時機有點特殊，過去幾年，馬雲被淡出，補習班及演藝界頂流偶像的被批評，加上新冠疫情商業活動受限的時間很長，虽然都各有缘由，社會中也不免出現過一種懷疑，中央政策的方向是否變了，民營企業不再被重視，國進民退？此種疑慮對經濟不利，企業家要考慮現時是否合適的投資時機，還是應按兵不動。但與此同時，中國先進的國防及創新科技產品卻不斷湧現，使人目不暇給，而這些創新科技產品，卻又大多是民營企業所生產的。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">此種形勢，與</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">90<span lang="ZH-TW">年代初有點相似，當時的投資環境存在負面因素，企業家並不肯定改革開放的道路是否還會走下去，所以縱有資金，也不敢投資。我曾計算過當時的全要素生產力，竟然下降了</span>7<span lang="ZH-TW">、</span>8<span lang="ZH-TW">個百分點，十分驚人。但這一切卻被</span>1992<span lang="ZH-TW">年的鄧小平南巡扭轉過來，生產力及</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">都驟然上升，原因也很簡單，南巡明確了改革開放之路會一直走下去，不用多慮，投資的信心也就回復了。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">今次的座談會，除了突出對創新科技含量高的高端製造業的重視外，亦顯出對民營企業發展的鼓勵。此點意味着綠燈一直都在亮着，民營企業可以大幹，若能在創新科技上有所貢獻，當然更好。一句話：民營企業很重要！</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">此種取態，其實在</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">2018<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>11<span lang="ZH-TW">月上一次的民營企業座談會中，習近平也表達過。當時他有段重要談話：「概括起來，民營經濟具有『五六七八九』的特徵，即貢獻了</span>50%<span lang="ZH-TW">以上的稅收、</span>60%<span lang="ZH-TW">以上的國內生產總值、</span>70%<span lang="ZH-TW">以上的技術創新成果、</span>80%<span lang="ZH-TW">以上的城鎮勞動就業、</span>90%<span lang="ZH-TW">以上的企業數量。」</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">民企佔逾</span></b><b><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">9<span lang="ZH-TW">成 貢獻</span>50%<span lang="ZH-TW">以上稅收</span></span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">這是對民營企業很高的評價。習近平當時用的應是</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">2017<span lang="ZH-TW">年的數據，但民營企業此等成就，後來也一直能保持。我查過一下數據，</span>2022<span lang="ZH-TW">年，國有控股企業數量只佔全國法人單位總數的</span>1.1%<span lang="ZH-TW">，私人控股單位卻佔</span>95.9%<span lang="ZH-TW">，另有集體單位</span>0.6%<span lang="ZH-TW">、港澳台單位</span>0.43%<span lang="ZH-TW">、外商</span>0.35%<span lang="ZH-TW">。由此可見，中國的企業絕大多數都是民營，並非國企，對中國經濟自然舉足輕重。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">但這看法要面對一個質疑，國企數量雖少，但會否都是大公司，民營的數量多，規模卻不大？我們若用</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">2020<span lang="ZH-TW">年較新一點的數據，可知民營企業持有的資產佔全國非金融類企業資產</span>50%<span lang="ZH-TW">，國企則持有</span>40%<span lang="ZH-TW">以上。由此可見，國企單位數量雖較少，但控制着的資產卻不少。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">更重要的問題是民企國企，哪一種生產效率更高？平均而言，顯然是民企，它們控制着的資產雖佔全國的</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">50%<span lang="ZH-TW">，但營業收入卻是</span>60%<span lang="ZH-TW">。若把最強的</span>500<span lang="ZH-TW">民企與全國最強的</span>500<span lang="ZH-TW">企業（包括國企）相比，答案更為明顯，最強民企的資產只是最強企業的</span>15%<span lang="ZH-TW">，但營收是</span>30%<span lang="ZH-TW">、利潤是</span>48%<span lang="ZH-TW">。若論對科研發展的投入，較大型民企的專利申請佔了</span>50%<span lang="ZH-TW">，研發投入則佔</span>60%<span lang="ZH-TW">。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">民企在中國這麼重要，中國的體制是社會主義還是資本主義？用甚麼名稱我並不介懷，但認同「白貓黑貓抓到老鼠便是好貓」一說。中國自改革開放後，引進市場經濟及尊重私有產權，支持民營企業，經濟發展氣勢如虹，但不要忘記，在改革開放之前的「做又三十六，不做又三十六」及指令經濟，卻曾使中國經濟一度陷於崩潰邊緣。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">美國號稱是資本主義國家，她的資本主義有兩部分，政治上是美式的民主選舉制度，經濟上是私有產權、市場機制。美國的科技文明及經濟文明，十分發達，曾達人類歷史頂峰，但一直有不同的偏差，近年表現更荒腔走板，對外霸凌掠奪，內部則社會分裂對立，科技、經濟、軍事都被中國趕了上來，使美國的政客十分恐慌，貿易上更胡搞關稅戰，完全偏離市場經濟原則。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">美式民主荒腔走板 阻自由貿易</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">這是美式資本主義的失敗，但細析其原因，病源並非出在私有產權及市場經濟上，而是出在其民主制度。此制度使其政策每幾年一變，更有甚者，政客極受刻意培植關鍵影響力的利益集團所左右，美國的法制蛻變為保護少數利益集團的法制，與總體利益往往</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">相左</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">。明乎此，便知為何關稅戰顯然違反美國人民的利益仍被當灵药推出，又或石油商為何能阻擋到美國高鐵的建設等等。若非其科技企業仍極有活力，美國的頹勢會更早出現。幫到美國的是其民企及市場經濟，窒礙她的是她的政治制度！</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">中國的體制是政治上建立靠打過木人巷的精英管治，經濟上保持即使低效、但能保障就業及執行國家任務的國企，但又倚靠民企的創富能力，而且大力發展市場經濟，在全球的市場中，更取代美國成為自由貿易的最大支持者與實踐者。到今天為止，中國的體制表現駸駸然似超越美國，民企的活力及貢獻是關鍵</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">，</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.8pt;">創新科技的主力軍也是民企。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="outline: 0px;"><picture class="image-gallery-img" style="cursor: pointer;"></picture></p><p><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">(<span lang="ZH-TW" style="letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">經濟</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">日报 </span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">2025-3-21)</span> </p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>3/14/2025</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2025/03/blog-post_14.html'>憶科大創校校長 科教灣區先行者 (雷鼎鳴)</a>
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<p> </p><p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">香港經濟近年算不上亮麗，若要走上新台階，有識之士都近乎有種共識，新的動力應來自創新科技能否生根成長為綠蔭大樹，香港教育是否會更上層樓，變成國際公認的教育中心，及香港與大灣區融合，如何發揮更大協同效應。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">很多人不知道，</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">30<span lang="ZH-TW">多年前便指出科技、教育與大灣區這</span>3<span lang="ZH-TW">個方向，並身體力行，日夜為此操勞的，正是極有遠見及工作能力的先行者吳家瑋校長。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">是的，家瑋校長已經離開了，在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">日。我與家瑋過從頗密，除了在科技大學多年的同事關係外，近年因有新科技之便，每三兩天總會通過微信吹吹水。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">他去年底到三藩市灣區的弗雷蒙（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Fremont<span lang="ZH-TW">）治病，在醫院病床上發來一張半躺着的照片，依然神采飛揚，十分生猛，但其後多天沒收他來信，已感不祥。春節前後收到他傳來的一些視頻才較為安心。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">我最後收到他的視頻，是關於烏克蘭如何自廢武功的，我答曰烏國現時比</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">1919<span lang="ZH-TW">年的中國更慘，他們應發起個五四運動，外抗強權，內除國賊，家瑋說：「晚了。都給澤連斯基毁了。」這</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>23<span lang="ZH-TW">日的評論，是我收到他的最後信息。他當時只剩下一個星期的生命，但對世界大事的關心絲毫不減，頭腦依然敏銳，評論一針見血，真異人也！</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">吳家瑋最大企盼 下一代不斷進步</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">在眾多通訊中，有兩個細節我印象深刻。第一是他特別喜歡一些胖嘟嘟玉雪可愛的中國小女孩，每見她們有天真聰慧的表現，家瑋便從心底露出喜悅。這反映出這名教育家，最大的喜樂便是見到國家的下一代能成長起來。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">第二是他極重情義，他最常分享的音樂是不同版本的歌曲《友誼萬歲》（蘇格蘭歌名是</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Auld Lang Syne<span lang="ZH-TW">），最喜歡的是一位男低音唱出以電影《魂斷藍橋》作背景的那個版本。這經典電影片我看過多次，提到主角慧雲</span></span><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-font-family: STSong; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">‧</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: STSong; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">李（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Vivien Leigh<span lang="ZH-TW">），家瑋即說，他那個年代的男生都喜歡她，但不喜歡《亂世佳人》的另一主角小鬍子奇勒</span></span><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-font-family: STSong; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">‧</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: STSong; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">基寶（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Clark Gable<span lang="ZH-TW">）。這些都是今天被視作史前人物的大明星，但家瑋為何常被《友誼萬歲》勾起心中柔軟的一片？我估計，他雖殺伐果斷，亦常與同事及朋友爭論得面紅耳赤，但他的友誼之情卻是真誠深沉的。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">熱切企盼着下一代不斷進步及把同事視為戰友，正好貫徹他創辦科技大學這個他一生人中最大的志業。家瑋在這方面的貢獻是無人可比擬及艱巨的。論述科大的創校經驗，要寫很多本書才能做到，家瑋的《同創》、孔憲鐸的《背水一戰》、錢致榕的《敢為天下先》、齊錫生的《香港科大，還有甚麼好說的？》都是發人深省的巨著，不用我湊熱鬧。在此只加少許筆墨。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">科大創立 中國首家研究型大學</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">科大的創立是劃時代的，其深遠的意義尚未被教育界以外的人所充分了解。它是香港，以至整個中國的第一所研究型大學。從前整個大中華地區都沒有此類大學，美國則在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">19<span lang="ZH-TW">世紀末從德國抄過來，建立了約翰霍普金斯（</span>Johns Hopkins University<span lang="ZH-TW">）這第一所美國的研究型大學，美國後來科技上能獨領風騷與此關係密切。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">科大引入了一系列研究型大學的管治制度及人才，迅速冒起，不但香港其他大學在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">90<span lang="ZH-TW">年代中開始群起仿效，中國內地亦然。但這是極其艱苦及困難的任務，尚要面對不少不知情者的風言風語。家瑋為人張揚，不怕據理力爭，與人火拼，這本是創新者必有的風格，總會得罪不少人，但同時也會贏來很多人的尊敬。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">事後看來，家瑋是成功的，在他那個年代，海外有頭有面的華裔學者幾乎都要來科大體驗一下，這些人大多桀驁不馴，個個老子天下第一，如何把他們放在一起，慢慢形成一個執着於追求卓越互相尊重的生態圈，當中艱巨不為外人語。但他所取得的經驗，對中國的教育及科技的貢獻，卻無可估量。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">家瑋退休以後，其實從未有真正休息過，他精力驚人，身怀绝症卻只視為怪病，他一直都在思考高等教育及推動科研的模式。十多年前他還一直計劃創辦一所新的博雅型大學，他亦得到內地的不少支持。此事因多種原因沒有實現到，但他的探索思考，卻使他對教育的理念更推上新台階。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">近年我因負責過一段時間科大的退休教授協會，多次組織了一些家瑋積極參與的關於高等教育的討論會，從中可見，家瑋一發聲論述高等教育的各種模式，現場就算原來吵鬧的，也會靜下來，人人豎起雙耳凝神聆聽，生怕漏了些甚麼，這都是因為大家聽得兩句便</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">立</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">知非是等閒。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">首提大灣區概念 港怎配合發展</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">家瑋也是大灣區這概念的第一人。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">30<span lang="ZH-TW">多年前我每到他辦公室，都會見到一張巨型大灣區地圖，他每每滔滔不絕地論述這地區應如何發展，香港應如何配合等。據陳繁昌校長的考證，</span>1997<span lang="ZH-TW">年科大畢業典禮中家瑋的演說便是以此為主題。當年沒有多少人明白大灣區的重要性，但這更顯出真正的先行者的眼光。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">校長是一位科學家，但正如他公子德愷教授所言，他是一位</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Renaissance Man<span lang="ZH-TW">（多才多藝的文藝復興人）。他與我交好，意氣相投，想來都是因為我們都有共同的知識追求興趣。</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">哲人其萎，思之涕然！</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">（</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2025-3-14)</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>3/07/2025</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2025/03/blog-post.html'>美國放棄烏克蘭 台灣如何是好？(雷鼎鳴)</a>
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<p> </p><p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國總統特朗普、副總統萬斯與烏克蘭總統澤連斯基在鏡頭前爭吵的震波仍未平息，但肯定已使台灣民進黨領導層膽顫心寒，不能不考慮自己何時會被賣掉。這次對罵，是否顯露出美國對台政策會有重大轉變，我們須仔細分析。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國對台政策是她全球外交政策的一個組成部分，所以我們要站在全球的高度看此問題。對罵的後果，烏克蘭當然是首當其衝，美國看來已下了決定要放棄烏克蘭，就算澤連斯基（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Volodymyr Zelenskyy<span lang="ZH-TW">）甘願喪權辱國，以</span>5,000<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元礦產資源作籌碼，換取美國的安全保障，美國也不會答應。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">很易被出賣 「當美朋友是致命的」</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">特朗普（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Donald Trump<span lang="ZH-TW">）說得很白了，烏克蘭已無牌可打。澤連斯基挑釁強鄰把自己國家帶入戰爭，等待他的只能是悲慘的命運。烏克蘭本是世界第三大核武國，但自廢武功後得此下場，將來烏克蘭的歷史學家每念及此，當會痛哭流涕。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">烏克蘭完了，歐盟也不行了。月前萬斯（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">JD Vance<span lang="ZH-TW">）到慕尼克安全會議演講並訓斥歐洲後，會議的主席竟在公眾面前飲泣不止，他在慨歎美國與歐洲已失去共通的價值觀基礎。特朗普對歐洲的藐視溢於言表，不會助力歐洲抗俄。為何如此？</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國前國務卿基辛格（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Henry Kissinger<span lang="ZH-TW">）的名言近日又被熱炒起來：「作為美國的敵人是危險的，作為美國的朋友卻是致命的。」此說大有道理，朋友不會怎樣防範美國，很易被出賣，而特朗普此等人物欺善怕惡，歐洲缺乏獨立外交政策，又無甚軍力，要託庇美國，特朗普會眷顧她們利益才怪。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">從更深層次的角度看，特朗普政府的新戰略是想兼併格陵蘭及加拿大，並且控制巴拿馬運河。我不認為他能把加拿大變成美國的第</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">51<span lang="ZH-TW">個州，但吞併格陵蘭卻有可能，他剛在國會的演說中又重提此事。格陵蘭只有</span>5<span lang="ZH-TW">萬多人口，美國可曉之以利，例如每人送</span>100<span lang="ZH-TW">萬美元誘導格陵蘭人民投票脫離丹麥加入美國，總開支也只是</span>500<span lang="ZH-TW">多億元，小菜一碟。歐洲當然會反對，是未來的障礙物，但特朗普不但不會給她們面子，還會與俄羅斯交好，使到歐洲因俄的威脅而坐立不安，不敢再對美國說三道四。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">失盟國配合 美打台灣牌效果減</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">回到亞洲，有一種很合理的說法是美國的主要對手是中國，要千方百計拖慢她的崛起，而台灣牌是重要的手段，故在台灣問題上美國會持續搞局，但因中國實力強大，所以美國需從歐洲與中東脫身出來，集中資源對付中國。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">此說雖有道理，但特朗普厭惡澤連斯基及藐視歐洲的態度卻不會對遏制中國有助力。在離中國海岸綫較近的地方，軍事上美國已知會輸給中國。美國最想推動的應是關稅戰、科技戰、金融戰、宣傳戰等等策略，但這些若要發揮更大效果，需要美國的盟國配合。歐洲國家早因貿易上非常倚靠中國而不願與中國為敵，現在美國改變戰略，把烏克蘭視為棄子，對歐洲也不假辭色，歐洲諸國如何樂於被綁在美國戰車上衝向中國？</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">看烏下場 台怎會打代理人戰爭</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國也在拉攏俄羅斯，但一旦台海出現衝突，俄羅斯斷不可能站在美國一邊打擊中國，她不怕美國的反覆無常，將來又對付俄羅斯嗎？事實上，正如與中國建了交的國家般，俄羅斯一早已承認台灣是中國一部分，這立場沒有理由改變。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">日本、南韓、菲律賓、澳洲、印度怎麼樣？她們見到美國拋棄盟友的做法能不起戒心，無端放棄自己利益與中國死摃到底嗎？南韓受美控制的總統尹錫悅已去，菲律賓太無實力可以不理，印度或想渾水摸魚，但無甚藉口，日本也害怕與中國關係太緊張，澳洲也沒有多大能量，所以統統都不足懼。美國朝野雖有不少人希望台灣人民願意跟隨烏克蘭之後，替美國打代理人戰爭，但人人皆知這會是一場勝不了的戰爭，再看烏克蘭下場，誰會這麼笨？美國的如意算盤一定會落空。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國的反華潮流尚未退潮，但美國人才眾多，漸漸也讓他們看得出台灣牌已是一張過時作廢了的牌。近日讀美國《外交事務》（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Foreign Affairs<span lang="ZH-TW">）的文章，頗有一些迂迴曲折地指出美國「失去」台灣的損失也不是這麼大</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;">，不用自己吓自己</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">。台積電已在美國建廠，美國不用太擔心芯片供應受挫。中國的導彈已無遠弗屆，根本不用把導彈基地設在台灣才威脅到第二島鏈及美國的設施。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">其實說中國收回台灣後會影響到美國與日本等的利益與安全，主要還是美國自己炮製出來的宣傳，中國要統一，是民族使命使然，得到全國人民的強烈支持，根本不是要爭甚麼霸。美國當然會害怕「失去」台灣後，自己會十分失威，或許引發其附庸的異心，但這是可補救的。只要特朗普下些大棋，例如吞併了格陵蘭，國土面積大增，便可化解掉在台灣問题上美國面子的損失。也許這也正是特朗普所想。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;">（香港</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: #F4F4F4; color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .8pt;">經濟</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;">日报</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;"> 2025-3-7<span lang="ZH-CN">）</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>2/28/2025</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2025/02/blog-post_28.html'>俄烏戰爭結束在望 各國何去何從 (雷鼎鳴)</a>
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<p> </p><p style="background: repeat rgb(244, 244, 244); margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">俄烏戰爭剛過了</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">周年，在戰場上烏方早就大勢已去，再也掩蓋不了，特朗普（</span>Donald Trump<span lang="ZH-TW">）此人死也不會願意負上支持失敗者之名，趕緊與澤連斯基（</span>Volodymyr Zelenskyy<span lang="ZH-TW">）切割。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: repeat rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">歐盟諸國雖仍口硬，但他們經濟也深受俄烏戰爭拖累，現在大概主要要求體面地離場。看來，俄烏戰爭快將結束，澤連斯基已被美國賣掉，要打也無力為繼，烏克蘭完全任人宰割，下場比</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">1919<span lang="ZH-TW">年五四運動時的中國更為悲慘。烏國人民之錯，便是容許顏色革命發生，讓一名頭腦發熱的演員當上總統。遙想</span>11<span lang="ZH-TW">年前香港「佔中」期間，烏克蘭派人來為佔中分子打氣分享「經驗」，香港有名無知少女竟在視頻上羨慕烏克蘭得到這麼美好的結局，現在已成為無腦之人永恒的諷刺。</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: repeat rgb(244, 244, 244); margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">烏克蘭的結局是一早便可準確預測的。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">53<span lang="ZH-TW">個星期之前，我在本欄發表過一篇《假如特朗普再當選總統》的文章，不但力排眾議，斷定特朗普會當上總統，而且指出他確會結束俄烏戰爭，原因正是烏方戰事失利，北約諸國負擔沉重，要結束戰爭又太沒面子，但特朗普卻無此問題，「大可把責任一股腦兒推到拜登（</span>Joe
Biden<span lang="ZH-TW">）身上，並且立刻停止對烏方的援助。」他可「與普京（</span>Vladimir Putin<span lang="ZH-TW">）握手言歡，再找人提名他競逐諾貝爾和平獎，雖然不會得獎，但也可自吹一會。」這些說話今天仍可一字不改，但我仍低估了特朗普的惡霸行為，他現在竟把援助當作借款，數倍地要烏克蘭還錢！</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: repeat rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">歐利益大損 宜宣布拒烏入北約</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: repeat rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">要作出這些預測本來不難，只要對人性有一定的了解，掌握一些分析工具，並且懂得分辨資訊的真偽並堅持以事實為據便可。可惜得很，網民中不少都對事實毫不尊重，盲從西方的宣傳，至今仍不覺悟，見到別人正確他們只會更加憤怒，對不同意見的人亂潑污水。此種時代的病症要很久才有機會痊癒。此等人我們可以不用理會，更應做的事是展望未來，未雨綢繆。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: repeat rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">北約中的歐盟諸國今天已被證實當了大笨蛋。歷史上，歐洲諸國常打來打去，邊界更改頻仍；要知俄羅斯國土遼闊，是德國的</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">47.8<span lang="ZH-TW">倍，她們對俄羅斯不深度戒懼才奇怪。但北約這個系統卻造就了她們足可致命的錯誤。有了軍事同盟，要打仗最好是別國出錢出力。自己則可慳則慳。這是經濟學中的「道德風險」原理，結果是北約中歐洲諸國都沒有真正屬於自己而又強大的軍隊，完全失去自主性，對美國的指揮，就算不服也不敢違抗。當年戴高樂（</span>Charles
de Gaulle<span lang="ZH-TW">）堅持法國不入北約，擁有自己軍隊，確有遠見，可惜後人不肖。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: repeat rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">現時歐洲諸國利益大損，北溪</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2<span lang="ZH-TW">號天然氣管被美國炸掉也不敢吭一聲，現在最高願望只能是參與停戰談判，雖無影響力，但挽回一點面子便算。其實她們最應做的，便是宣布永不接納烏克蘭加入北約（反正北約會否瓦解也是未知之事），並要求烏克蘭中立化。有一中立的烏克蘭作緩衝，才是最符合歐洲安全之事。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: repeat rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國應聚焦 解決國內分裂腐敗</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: repeat rgb(244, 244, 244); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 15pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國放棄烏克蘭已是板上釘釘之事，但正如我</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2023<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>7<span lang="ZH-TW">月在本欄撰文指出，美國一早便盯上了烏克蘭的天然資源，現在已不是巧取，而是擺出要明火搶掠的姿態了。這是帝國主義的當代版本，其胃大至連加拿大、格陵蘭也想搶過來。不要寄望美國民主黨會大聲反對，君不見，美國本土</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">政客</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">不是對這些霸凌行為集體噤聲嗎？美國出賣烏克蘭，其實符合其政客思路，減少包袱，集中力量對付中國正是他們所想的，但中國早已厲兵秣馬準備好了。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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